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Partial SNG book (sng文章分享)(6)



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入正题:


You will see throughout this book that the bias against confrontation is a strong influence in SNG strategy.

Limitations of the ICM

It’s important to realise that the ICM is just a tool for estimating tournament equities. It’s a very useful, very important tool, but the equities it gives out are still just estimates. A player’s true equity may differ from the ICM’s calculations. There are three reasons this might occur:

Skill equity

Hidden in the section about calculating ICM equities was an important sentence: “We assume that all players play with equal skill”. If a player’s skill is above average, then an extra amount of “skill equity” should be added to all equity estimates. The amount of this skill equity is highly variable. For example, if I win the hand above where my opponent calls with 22, then it is highly unlikely that my equity is much higher than the ICM’s 48.98%, since it’s impossible for me to do better than 50.00%, which is what first place pays. On the other hand, if my stack is very short relative to the blinds, I won’t have many decisions to make and my skills will be wasted.

To consider the effect of skill on your equity, think about how much your skill will come into play with various possible stack sizes. For example, going back to the AK versus 22 first hand all-in, obviously our skill will have no effect if our stack size is zero. Our skill equity is very unlikely to double with 4000 chips compared to 2000, because the effective stack size will still be 2000, and the blinds are small enough that 2000 is plenty to be able to play effectively anyway. So we will lose more skill equity going from 2000 to 0 than we will gain going from 2000 to 4000, biasing us even more against confrontation.

In general, if you are a good player, you should avoid allins which are breakeven or slightly positive according to the ICM, unless your stack is very small or very large compared to the size of the blinds. Your skill equity loss will make them into losing plays.

Manipulating blind equity loss

A player who is about to face the blinds has a lower equity than the ICM suggests he does, because he is about to be forced to put money in the pot. It is sometimes correct to make plays which will decrease the equity loss which results from taking the blinds. For example, consider the following situation:

Blinds 200/400

UTG (You): 1480
Button: 2840
SB: 2840
BB: 2840

Let’s assume that no matter what you do, you’ll be forced to fold the next two blinds to the buttons each hand, who will steal successfully. The ICM suggests your equity is 17.31%. But if the button for each hand steals successfully for the next three hands, the stacks will look like:

Cutoff: 2840
Button (You): 880
SB: 3040
BB: 3240

Your equity then will be 11.46%, for a loss of 5.85%. But if you steal successfully by pushing UTG for 1480, then the stacks will be:

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推荐阅读:为什么玩德州扑克能赚钱? 在线扑克入门思路
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