在线扑克

Partial SNG book (sng文章分享)(5)



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入正题:



Of course, we could alter the victory percentages so that there is a net gain in equity by the two players. For instance, if the short stack was 100% to win the second confrontation, the outcome of the first hand would be reversed, leading to a net equity gain. But then, if the big stack was 100% to win, the equity loss would be proportionally larger again. Over the course of many hands, all things being equal, win percentages will average towards 50%.

This brings us to the theorem of bias against confrontation:

In an SNG, confrontations between players result, on average, in a net loss of equity from those players and a net gain in equity by players not involved in the hand.

To get involved in a hand, you must first be sure that you stand to gain enough chips to overcome the bias against confrontation. The more chips you commit to the pot, the worse the loss of equity will be.

So far, our examples of bias against confrontation have been mild. Before you start to think that the concept is a technical one which doesn’t matter in the real world, here is a hand offering a more extreme example. This hand was taken from actual play in a $100 9 SNG.

Cutoff: 460
Button: 550
Hero (SB): 13650BB: 5340
Blinds were 300/600. Cutoff and button both folded and our hero raised allin. His hand is not important since he should make this raise with any hand. His opponent in the big blind called with pocket twos. Here are the ICM equities for all possible outcomes:


Opponent folds
Cutoff: 0.1063
Button: 0.1267
Me (SB): 0.4393
BB: 0.3278
Opponent calls and loses
Cutoff: 0.2502
Button: 0.2600
Me (SB): 0.4898
BB: 0.0000


Opponent calls and wins
Cutoff: 0.1032
Button: 0.1232
Me (SB): 0.3733
BB: 0.4003
Opponent calls and we tie
Cutoff: 0.1053
Button: 0.1256
Me (SB): 0.4328
BB: 0.3362



Versus a random hand, our hero’s opponent stands to win 49.39% of the time and tie 1.9% of the time. This gives these weighted average equities for calling:

Cutoff: 0.1749
Button: 0.1899
Me (SB): 0.4312
BB: 0.2041

By calling instead of folding, our hero’s opponent lost a massive 12.37% of prize pool. This represents $123.70 in a $100 9 SNG. He lost much more than the tournament buyin in a single hand!

Unfortunately, our hero didn’t benefit from this generosity; he lost substantially as well, although much less than his opponent did. The benefactors were the two short stacks, who were both handed huge amounts of equity on a plate.

In SNGs it is quite common for poor decisions made by your opponents to cost you money. The flipside is that if your opponents don’t understand the bias against confrontation, then you will be able to sit back and watch equity get shovelled in your direction as your opponents needlessly clash with each other.


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其实大概也就这样,有空可以到我上面介绍的大发扑克室找我交流切磋,我带你们打比赛。



推荐阅读:为什么玩德州扑克能赚钱? 在线扑克入门思路
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